Takeaways From Tokyo
With a record-breaking turnout, ISTAT Asia returned to Tokyo with an agenda as dynamic and complex as the region’s aviation market. Held 12-15 May 2025 at the Westin Tokyo, the event reflected both the tremendous recovery and evolving challenges in the Asia-Pacific, where surging demand, supply constraints, geopolitical uncertainty and sustainability imperatives all collided in conversations across the conference’s many panels and fireside chats.
Opening Remarks
ISTAT Asia kicked off with a sense of momentum and scale reflective of the region’s growing significance in global aviation. ISTAT President Gerry Laderman and ISTAT Asia Committee Chair Michael Littleton emphasized how the society’s presence and programming in Asia have expanded in lockstep with market demand. They reminded attendees of upcoming professional development deadlines and acknowledged the record-setting attendance as a sign of both resilience and opportunity in the APAC market.
Fireside Chat With All Nippon Airways (ANA)
Shinichiro Watanabe of SMFL and Hidekazu Yoshida of All Nippon Airways (pictured right) spoke during a fireside chat.
In a wide-ranging conversation with Shinichiro Watanabe, senior managing executive officer and head of the transportation business unit at SMFL, Hidekazu Yoshida, member of the board and executive vice president of procurement and facilities at All Nippon Airways, addressed Japan’s remarkable tourism rebound, with inbound visitors exceeding pre-COVID levels. Seventy percent of ANA passengers are now non-Japanese, yet strong domestic demand persists, driven by tourism within the country. Infrastructure development is key to supporting this growth: a third runway at Narita is expected by 2029, and ANA is lobbying for improved ground transport to help travelers access the airport.
Yoshida also discussed ANA’s sustainability efforts, highlighting that 80% of the fleet is now composed of fuel-efficient aircraft. The airline is partnering with energy companies such as Idemitsu, along with government support, to secure more sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) feedstock and reduce emissions. Human resource constraints — especially pilot retirements beginning in 2030 — were noted as a looming challenge. ANA is exploring automation in airport operations and AI-based systems to streamline lease return documentation and maintenance record-keeping.
On the supply side, Yoshida acknowledged Boeing delivery delays and expressed willingness to extend the service life of existing 737NGs. Airbus challenges, including engine availability, were also cited. The airline continues to expand internationally, with recent 787 orders and regional fleet diversification via Embraer to serve Japan’s aging and shrinking population.
JOLCO Panel
This panel offered a candid look at JOLCO financing from both seasoned and newer airline participants. Featured on the panel was moderator Ali Ben Lmadani, CEO of ABL Aviation; Mark Cezar, chief financial officer of Cebu Pacific; Nirmal Govinda Das, senior vice president of group treasury and risk at Emirates; and Murat Seker, chief financial officer of Turkish Airlines.
Turkish Airlines and Cebu Pacific are exploring more diversified funding strategies, including multi-currency instruments and insurance-backed hybrids. Emirates, meanwhile, is leaning toward finance leases for its incoming widebodies, reflecting a broader post-COVID shift toward on-balance sheet structures.
Panelists emphasized the trust-driven nature of the JOLCO market. Only around 20 airlines globally can regularly access this structure, and relationships are paramount. Cezar detailed how the airline continued servicing JOLCO investors during the pandemic, which strengthened its credibility. For airlines new to JOLCO, transparency, patience and long lead times are key — starting with a single aircraft and growing from there. Though Japanese investors are currently more focused on shipping, aviation credits remain attractive as market cycles evolve.
State of the Industry
In his final ISTAT Asia appearance before retirement, Rob Morris, global head of consultancy at Cirium Ascend Consultancy, delivered a data-rich forecast tempered by macroeconomic uncertainty. He noted that global passenger traffic was up 5%-6% year over year, although short of IATA’s 8% forecast. Tariffs, he warned, could suppress demand by driving inflation while also limiting aircraft supply, especially if delivery costs rise and OEM output falters.
Fleet utilization in Japan has rebounded even as overall aircraft numbers remain below 2019. Meanwhile, backlogs remain deep — Cirium projects 1,400 deliveries in 2025 from Airbus and Boeing, with significant strain persisting on widebody availability. The C919’s ramp-up lags its Western counterparts, and new tech engine durability continues to frustrate operators.
Morris concluded that while growth remains steady in India and other parts of Southeast Asia, the market is at an inflection point. Tariff policy, supply chain challenges and aging fleets are all interacting in complex ways. His parting advice: stay vigilant but recognize that long-term demand fundamentals remain strong.
OEM Panel
The OEM Panel — which featured moderator Barry Flannery, chief commercial officer of SMBC Aviation Capital; Sinead Cormican, head of leasing customers at Airbus; Darren Hulst, vice president of marketing at Boeing; Luke Mallows, senior vice president of marketing and lessors at Rolls-Royce; and Christophe Poulain, senior vice president of commercial strategy and marketing at Safran Aircraft Engines — tackled the industry’s most pressing structural issues: delivery delays, engine durability, and the long shadow of tariffs. All four representatives emphasized that existing escalation clauses in contracts protect both OEMs and customers from abrupt cost increases, though rising costs and production bottlenecks continue to strain the system.
Airbus acknowledged glider aircraft issues that will lead to lumpier deliveries in the first half of 2025, while Boeing touted more production stability. Safran and Rolls-Royce addressed engine challenges head-on, pointing to recent design fixes and long-term R&D — such as the RISE and UltraFan programs — as paths toward sustainability and performance improvements. Notably, environmental durability remains a sticking point, particularly in regions with harsh operating conditions.
On tariffs, speakers urged caution and patience. While immediate financial impacts remain unclear, long-term predictability is essential for both OEMs and their leasing partners.
Fireside Chat With Cebu Pacific Air
The fireside chat between Mary Prettyman, ISTAT immediate past president and head of marketing at Pratt & Whitney, and Mike Szucs, CEO of Cebu Pacific Air, offered insight into how a low-cost carrier is navigating outsized growth and operational complexity in a geographically fragmented market.
Szucs shared that Cebu Pacific’s Q1 2025 traffic rose 26% year-over-year — outpacing its 25% increase in capacity — and emphasized the importance of maintaining service quality despite being a low-cost carrier. He noted that Cebu maintains a mixed fleet to serve diverse markets: turboprops for shorter runways, A320s for standard operations and A330s to maximize capacity at slot-constrained airports like Manila. The carrier’s long-term growth will include investments in digital platforms, spare engines and spare aircraft to improve resilience.
Ancillary revenue remains a major component of Cebu Pacific’s model — currently about 25% of total revenue — but regulatory caps in the Philippines limit some charges. As onboard Wi-Fi becomes more viable, Cebu is exploring it as a new revenue stream. Szucs also highlighted the importance of maintaining a “startup culture” within the now 30-year-old airline, while looking ahead to the new Manila airport slated to open in the 2028-2030 time frame.
Appraisers Panel
Moderated by John Cunningham, head of APAC at Genesis, the Appraisers Panel included Gueric Dechavanne, vice president of commercial aviation and valuation services at Collateral Verifications; Simon Finn, senior vice president at MUFG Bank; Olga Razzhivina, director at Oriel; and Mike Yeomans, director of valuations at IBA Group. The panel explored the rising importance of accurate data, independence and risk clarity in today’s volatile aviation landscape.
Dechavanne and Yeomans emphasized the growing demand for detailed market guidance and the need for back-tested, data-rich insights, especially from clients new to aviation. Razzhivina and Finn addressed the uncertainty surrounding tariffs, particularly their uneven application to aircraft, engines and financing structures. While immediate impact is still unfolding, the long-term implications remain unclear.
Panelists noted that airlines are holding on to older aircraft longer due to maintenance predictability, and that values for current-generation aircraft are holding firm due to tight supply. Lease rates may remain elevated in the near term, and spare engine values have surged due to AOG issues with newer engines. The engine market, they agreed, is seeing record-high demand and presents strong investment potential, particularly for lessors and investors seeking lower-ticket-size assets.
Engine Panel
The Engine Panel — moderated by Andrew Beer, executive vice president of airline marketing (APAC) at SMBC Aviation Capital — featured Julie Dickerson, CEO of Shannon Engine Support Ltd.; Richard Hough, CEO of elfc; Abdol Moabery, CEO of GA Telesis; and Roger Welaratne, managing director of SAEL. The discussion centered on the global engine supply crunch, soaring maintenance costs and uncertain regulatory headwinds.
Panelists noted that turnaround times for shop visits have nearly doubled, and spare engine lease rates — though slightly softening — remain well above historical norms. Dickerson and Moabery described the logistical scramble for MRO slots, while Hough added that many airlines delayed maintenance during COVID, exacerbating current durability issues.
The panel also discussed the potential impacts of tariffs on engine leasing. Welaratne noted that tariff surcharges from OEMs are already being passed through to MRO customers. However, Moabery said the real cost so far has been “brain damage” from trying to understand evolving rules with little government guidance.
Despite the challenges, all four executives were optimistic that engine reliability issues will eventually be resolved. In the meantime, part price escalations — often exceeding CPI+5% — remain a pain point. With OEMs no longer offering PBH terms and instead moving to time-and-materials contracts, airlines are facing a new era of cost management.
Fireside Chat With oneworld Alliance
In a conversation moderated by Simon Hanson, chairman of Asia Pacific and the Middle East at Avolon, Nat Pieper, CEO of the oneworld Alliance, reflected on the evolving role of airline alliances in a post-pandemic world. With 14 current members and a 15th — Fiji Airways — joining soon, Pieper underscored the logistical and strategic complexity of coordinating across time zones and operational models.
Rather than expanding membership, oneworld is now focused on improving the customer experience and operational efficiency. Pieper shared the vision of a unified customer platform, supported by integrated systems, data sharing and potentially a common mobile app for alliance members. A highlight includes the ability to search and book round-the-world tickets directly within the oneworld platform.
On the tariff front, Pieper said the alliance primarily serves as an information-sharing conduit, enabling members to stay abreast of developments in different jurisdictions.
Debt Capital Markets and Bankers
Moderated by Mui Sin Chan, head of treasury at BOC Aviation Limited, the panel included Mildred Chua, managing director and global head of syndication and loan solutions at DBS Bank; Augusto King, co-head of debt capital markets (Asia Pacific) at MUFG; Yoshifumi Sakuragi, senior vice president of marketing at PK AirFinance;
Joseph Shanahan, head of aviation at Citi; and Vinodh Srinivasan, managing director and co-head of structured credit group at Mizuho Securities.
Panelists shared that Q1 2025 saw strong bond demand before spreads widened following the 2 April tariff announcement. Even so, financing pipelines remain active, and alternative structures like e-notes and ABS are poised for a potential comeback later this year. Asian banks are increasingly open to unsecured lending to lessors, with Taiwan emerging as a liquidity hub.
King noted that Chinese liquidity could soon begin flowing outward if domestic options become saturated. Currency diversification is also gaining ground, with inquiries into CNY- and CNH-denominated debt rising. Despite uncertainty around rate cuts in 2025, sentiment on aviation credit remains broadly constructive.
Leasing Company Executive Panel
Moderated by Takahiro Kawaguchi, partner at K&L Gates, the Leasing Company Executive Panel featured Mahoko Hara, executive chair of Aviation Capital Group; Noriyuki Hiruta, chairman of SMBC Aviation Capital; Yasuyuki Kusakari, chairman of Jackson Square Aviation; and Takayuki Sakakida, chairman of Aircastle. The panel highlighted the strategic benefits of Japanese parent companies in accessing capital, investor networks and aviation-adjacent services. Sakakida explained how Marubeni’s diverse business arms — from SAF to aerospace components — enhance Aircastle’s customer offering. Hiruta emphasized how SMBC’s banking relationships help facilitate JOLCO deals and aircraft trading.
Hara noted that Aviation Capital Group’s positioning outside of bank ownership allows for flexibility and tailored solutions. Kusakari spoke to the value of Mitsubishi HC Capital’s broader aviation investments, which support Jackson Square’s engine leasing and aircraft part-out capabilities.
While the panel echoed concerns over tariffs, they stressed that inflation and supply chain constraints are more immediate threats. On sustainability, all agreed that lessors must lead on fuel-efficient fleets and SAF access, particularly those tied to trading houses that are already engaged in SAF development.
Day 2 Welcome Remarks
Robert Martin, ISTAT Asia Committee vice chair and independent investor, welcomed attendees back for Day 2 by underscoring Asia’s expanding share of the global aviation market. With 40% of all new aircraft deliveries headed to the region, Martin noted that understanding risk, building resilience and strengthening cross-border partnerships would be recurring themes throughout the day’s sessions.
Fireside Chat With SMBC Aviation Capital
The fireside chat between Peter Barrett, CEO of SMBC Aviation Capital, and Marilyn Gan, senior vice president and head of Asia Pacific at Vmo Aircraft Leasing, addressed how leasing has become both mainstream and more complex in a post-pandemic world.
Barrett acknowledged that while leasing remains essential — over half the global fleet is now leased — the space is more competitive, and scale has never been more critical. He emphasized the persistent imbalance between demand and supply, which is likely to continue through the end of the decade due to delayed OEM recovery.
On tariffs, Barrett described the situation as “a moving target,” cautioning that even a 10% duty would create long-term friction. While airline demand remains broadly intact, geopolitical volatility and economic pressure require lessors to remain agile. Barrett also pointed to India and Southeast Asia as regions of steady, predictable growth, while noting that the industry is bracing for more consolidation and M&A in the years ahead.
Small Narrowbody Panel
Moderated by Jamie Baker, managing director at JP Morgan, the Small Narrowbody Panel featured Ron Baur, president of Azorra; Jeff Chatfield, executive chairman of Avation PLC; Zuzana Hrnkova, vice president of marketing at ATR; Mark Hughes, chief commercial officer of Falko; and Michał Nowak, global head of airline marketing at Embraer.
Panelists emphasized that distinctions between “regional” and “narrowbody” aircraft are blurring. Embraer’s Nowak noted that the E195-E2 can now serve many missions traditionally covered by larger narrowbodies — up to six hours in range with competitive seat economics. ATR’s Hrnkova highlighted production capacity constraints, especially as demand surges for turboprops to serve Asia’s archipelagos.
Supply chain challenges, while present, are less severe than for the large OEMs. Panelists pointed to the segment’s versatility and counter-cyclicality, especially important as carriers reevaluate their fleet planning in the face of delays. Smaller aircraft also provide entry points for new operators and flexibility for mature markets needing upgauge or downgrade options.
Airline Financing Panel
Moderated by Gerry Laderman, ISTAT president and former chief financial officer of United Airlines, the Airline Financing Panel included Okan Baş, senior vice president of finance at Turkish Airlines; Eric Harder, vice president and treasurer at United Airlines; Markus Ohlert, head of aircraft finance and financial fleet management at Lufthansa Group; and Riyaz PeerMohamed, chief aircraft acquisition and financing officer at IndiGo.
Panelists discussed the evolution of financing strategies post-COVID. United’s Harder said the airline now holds three times more liquidity than it did pre-pandemic and is actively pursuing sale-leasebacks (SLBs) on MAX aircraft to fill near-term needs. Turkish Airlines’ Baş emphasized diversification, noting the airline finances in five currencies and is seeking ECA-backed solutions to manage cost of capital.
Lufthansa’s Ohlert stressed the importance of maintaining investment-grade status, which provides access to unsecured debt and keeps funding costs low. IndiGo’s PeerMohamed, while unrated, said the airline keeps a strategic reserve of unencumbered assets to protect flexibility and preserve optionality for future ratings or crises.
Panelists agreed that JOLCO remains a preferred financing method for long-haul and widebody aircraft, and that close communication with financiers is essential to managing uncertainty around interest rates and OEM delays.
Asia Risk Update
Moderated by Vasgen Edwards, managing director of capital markets and outreach at Boeing, the Asia Risk Update included Francois Collet, head of trading and asset management at Airbus; Simon Collins, partner at Watson Farley & Williams; Adeline Lim, executive vice president of portfolio risk management at SMBC Aviation Capital; and Nattawat Vilasdechanon, counsel at Clifford Chance.
The panel highlighted how legal frameworks and credit risk assessments across Asia are rapidly evolving. India’s ratification of the Cape Town Convention now allows for aircraft repossession within 60 days, a development that panelists called game-changing for unlocking capital. Vietnam is expected to follow suit by year-end, with Thailand next in line.
Collet and Lim emphasized the importance of jurisdictional scoring systems like AWG’s GARY index for evaluating country-specific repossession, restructuring, and counterparty risk. Collins noted that transparency and regulatory progress in emerging markets are directly tied to financing access, particularly for the region’s massive pipeline of aircraft orders.
Driving Sustainable Aviation in Asia
Moderated by David Swan, chief operating and sustainability officer at SMBC Aviation Capital, the sustainability panel included Shisei Goto, general manager at Nippon Paper Industry Co. Ltd.; Yasuhiro Kito, deputy director at Japan’s Agency for Natural Resources and Energy; Takamasa Nakajima, strategic project lead at Sumitomo Corporation; and Alisa Schackmann, chief of staff and sustainability lead at Boeing Japan.
Panelists emphasized that Japan could be a global leader in SAF but faces serious constraints in feedstock availability. The country has little used cooking oil and must rely on imported biomass, raising concerns about logistics and costs. Goto and Nakajima shared updates on Japan’s efforts to scale HEFA production and explore Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ) technologies, while Kito stressed the need for stronger policy mandates to reach net-zero goals by 2050.
Schackmann highlighted how lessons from other green energy transitions — such as solar and wind — could help SAF reach price parity. The panel agreed that achieving decarbonization in aviation requires holistic collaboration across government, industry and investors.
Operating Lease and JOL Panel
Moderated by Paul O’Dwyer, chief trading officer and head of sales and JOL arrangements at ORIX Aviation, the panel included Patrick Halluin, vice president of fleet transactions at Air France; Alvin Limqueco, senior vice president and chief supply chain officer at Philippine Airlines; Billy Mayberry, manager of funding and fleet planning at Virgin Australia; and Christine Rovelli, chief revenue officer at Finnair.
Panelists agreed that operating leases remain critical tools for fleet planning flexibility, particularly in light of OEM delays. Rovelli and Halluin praised the stability of JOL and JOLCO structures, while Limqueco noted that PAL hopes to gain access to the JOL market going forward.
Participants stressed the importance of trust and long-term relationships with lessors and investors, especially as lease novations can result in airlines working with unfamiliar partners. Rising lease extension rates and high aircraft values have made used aircraft sales more appealing for airlines, and the post-pandemic period revealed which lessors were true partners.
Fireside Chat With ORIX Aviation
In a conversation moderated by Takamasa Marito, joint general manager and global head of marketing at Tokyo Century Corporation, James Meyler, CEO of ORIX Aviation, reflected on the lessor’s history and future strategy.
Meyler described ORIX’s resilience through multiple crises — including 9/11 and the global financial crisis — and how that experience shaped a strong asset management ethos.
With a mix of owned, managed and JOL aircraft, ORIX has been able to adapt quickly to market shifts. The company now has approximately 120 JOL aircraft and expects growth in its managed portfolio to as many as 250 units.
He also discussed the company’s cultural integration, noting how ORIX Aviation has blended Irish operational expertise with Japanese shareholder engagement, resulting in what he called “active collaboration, not passive ownership.” Meyler’s recent appointment to a senior executive role within ORIX Corporation reflects the parent’s deepening commitment to aviation.
Global Lessor CEO Panel
Moderated by Robert Martin, ISTAT Asia Committee vice chair and independent international investor, the closing panel featured Andy Cronin, CEO of Avolon; Firoz Tarapore, CEO of DAE Capital; and Steven Townend, CEO and managing director of BOC Aviation.
The conversation covered macro risks, industry consolidation and emerging technologies. Cronin spoke about Avolon’s growing presence in eVTOL, including its investment in Vertical Aerospace and first electric aircraft lease to Air New Zealand. Tarapore shared DAE’s strategic vision for diversification into adjacent areas, including its recent acquisition of NAC and long-standing MRO capabilities.
Townend said BOC Aviation will need to double its asset base to maintain a top-five position and noted a shift in the Chinese leasing landscape as regulators encourage more operating lease activity. Panelists discussed the challenges of returning to markets like Russia, citing sanctions and insurance uncertainties.
On tariffs, all three CEOs expressed frustration with the evolving landscape. Avolon’s Cronin joked that “any board brief prepared on tariffs was outdated by the time it was printed,” while DAE’s Tarapore said they will not finance tariff costs without clear government guarantees. Looking ahead, the panel agreed that fewer lessors with large order books will mean a structurally different industry over the next decade.
Engagement, Culture and Connection
While insightful panels and fireside chats anchored the agenda, ISTAT Asia also offered a robust lineup of activities designed to foster networking, cultural appreciation and professional development.
Preceding the main program, attendees had the opportunity to participate in the ISTAT Asia Workshop, sponsored by PwC. This half-day event featured sessions on aircraft valuation, repossession, international tax issues and more, providing in-depth knowledge for professionals seeking a deeper dive into critical industry topics.
Attendees could also explore Tokyo through two immersive cultural excursions: a walking tour of Tokyo West, featuring the Meiji Shrine and the fashion-forward streets of Harajuku, and a hands-on visit to the Tsukiji Outer Market, culminating in a professional sushi-making class.
The event’s social and networking highlights included the ISTAT Rising Executives event, a dedicated gathering for professionals with fewer than 10 years in the industry, and the Welcome Reception, sponsored by Clover Aviation Capital, which officially opened the conference on Tuesday evening. On Wednesday, the Women@ISTAT session — moderated by Avolon’s Anna Bury and featuring speakers Julie Dickerson of Shannon Engine Support and Moushumi Kirtania of Carlyle Aviation Partners — spotlighted the importance of diversity in aviation leadership.
Throughout the event, attendees could take advantage of The Hub and Jet Fuel Café, sponsored by Pratt & Whitney, to recharge and reconnect between sessions. Wednesday evening’s Networking Dinner, sponsored by SMBC Aviation Capital, offered a cultural deep dive with Japanese food stations and traditional activities such as origami and calligraphy, followed by an After Party at Blue Note Place hosted by ABL, GA Telesis and SMBC Aviation Capital. The conference concluded on Thursday with a closing Happy Hour, giving attendees a final chance to toast a week of insights, connections and continued momentum in the APAC aviation market.
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