Crossroads of Opportunity
ISTAT EMEA took place 5-7 October 2025 in Prague, Czech Republic, welcoming more than 1,700 delegates to the Hilton Prague. The event offered a rich mix of educational sessions, networking opportunities and cultural experiences, providing attendees with a panoramic view of the global aviation industry and its evolving priorities. From in-depth discussions on macroeconomic headwinds and sustainability to forward-looking panels with airline and lessor leaders, the conference fostered a spirit of collaboration and optimism. Against the historic backdrop of Prague, participants engaged in thoughtful dialogue on growth, resilience and innovation shaping the next era of aviation.
Navigating Global Macro Headwinds: An Economist’s View
Gordon Kerr, European macro strategist at KBRA, described how tariffs and shifting trade policies are “shocking the globe into tectonic shifts.” The U.S., he said, is asserting “American sovereignty in global trade” by reshoring manufacturing, emphasizing bilateral agreements and reducing World Trade Organization oversight — all supported by tax incentives and deregulation. Other regions are responding with their own industrial policies, seeking greater independence in defense, energy and technology.
“Everywhere you look,” Kerr said, “governments are adopting active industrial policies” to localize production and secure supply chains. The result is a realignment of global trade and a rise in geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
Among the key headwinds he cited were inflationary tariff impacts, high government debt, policy unpredictability and lingering aftershocks from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Inflation, he cautioned, “is still not fully under control everywhere,” and the energy transition remains uneven.
Still, there are reasons for optimism. Declining interest rates, continued fiscal stimulus, capital investment — particularly in AI and supply chain restructuring — and low unemployment are supporting demand. “Consumers are healthy, though cautious,” he said, with confidence improving from recent cost-of-living challenges.
Kerr sees recession risk as “moderately elevated but turning a corner,” though high deficits continue to constrain growth. Government spending remains a stabilizer, with the U.S. pursuing tax cuts and industrial investments and Europe boosting defense and infrastructure budgets.
He emphasized that Europe’s recovery hinges on Germany: “When Germany recovers, so will Europe.” Though unemployment remains low, expectations are softening, and rising joblessness could slow momentum.
Looking ahead, Kerr predicted “slow and low” growth through 2025 but said recovery is underway. He’s watching wage inflation, insolvencies and regulatory changes closely as “divergent paths” begin to emerge for the global economy.
Aviation Landscape
Moderating the panel, Jim Bell, global aviation and aerospace sector head at Watson Farley & Williams, opened with an optimistic overview: passenger demand remains strong, order books are full, and investor appetite from banks and capital markets is healthy. Yet he noted the headwinds of geopolitical tension, airspace restrictions and uneven global momentum on sustainability, especially regarding the production and adoption of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).
Celine Bouas, senior vice president of customers for Europe at Rolls-Royce, outlined the industry’s post-pandemic recovery across “three aspects: supply, demand and liquidity.” She said, “2022-2024 were the hardest years,” as OEMs contended with labor shortages and supplier debt. “We need a sustainable ramp-up. No one wants oversupply,” she added, noting that growth is strongest in Asia-Pacific and China.
Representing the airline perspective, Simone De Wit-Huijs, vice president of fleet planning at Etihad Airways, said 2025 has been more stable: “We’ve added 19 aircraft and 27 destinations this year alone, transporting more than 10 million passengers.”
On the financing side, James Kelly, head of aviation finance at KPMG, observed that “lease-rate factors have recovered,” with trading activity “very robust” despite limited supply. De Wit-Huijs cautioned, however, that “pressure remains high, especially on widebody leases.”
From the airline finance perspective, Christine Rovelli, chief revenue officer at Finnair, said market tightness has led carriers to rethink leasing strategies: “We’ve been buying back narrowbody aircraft from lessors — it’s been better for us than extending leases.”
Bertrand Dehouck, head of transportation capital markets at BNP Paribas, added that “liquidity is plentiful,” driven in part by private credit. “The market is flush,” he said, “though the outlook depends on how long that remains the case.”
The conversation turned to geopolitics and trade. Rovelli discussed adapting to closed Russian airspace: “We’ve had to stay nimble and plan for surprises.” Bouas noted that tariffs add major costs: “An engine has 30,000 parts — tariffs translate into millions of dollars.”
Sustainability rounded out the discussion. Rovelli said SAF remains costly, placing European carriers at a competitive disadvantage. Dehouck noted BNP Paribas has invested in a SAF fund “to learn and support the transition.” Bouas closed on an optimistic note: “We don’t see sustainability as a constraint but as an opportunity to develop.”
OEM Panel
Moderated by Donna Ager, partner at Walkers Global, the OEM Panel explored how manufacturers are navigating lingering supply chain issues, balancing production stability, and driving innovation in sustainability and product development.
François Collet, head of trading and asset management at Airbus, said the manufacturer has largely overcome its pandemic-era challenges but still faces “delays linked to buyer-furnished equipment and on the engine side.” He emphasized the need to maintain “the right balance between new business and ongoing commitments,” noting that the time-on-wing for some engines had been shorter than expected.
Darren Hulst, vice president of commercial marketing at Boeing Commercial Airplanes, echoed those sentiments, saying the past year’s priority had been “stability and quality.”He added, “We’re putting more Boeing people into our suppliers” to improve coordination and credibility across the supply chain.
Representing Embraer, Rodrigo Silva e Souza, vice president of marketing, said the overall supply chain picture is improving, with 2025 marking “an interesting year for the small narrowbody market.” He observed growing demand for smaller aircraft across regions, as airlines diversify fleet strategies and reconsider single-fleet models.
From ATR, Guillaume Huertas, head of leasing, asset management and freighter, said the turboprop manufacturer had prioritized output stability in 2025 and continues to invest heavily in efficiency. “We’ve been producing an aircraft that burns half the fuel,” he said, noting that ATR is developing a hybrid-electric model expected to fly within five years.
The conversation then turned to sustainability and energy policy. Hulst said that while OEMs can influence certain technologies, “the cost of SAF has to come down so it becomes a business case someone can make.” Collet pointed out that the U.S. is investing heavily in sustainability “under the banner of energy independence,” while Silva e Souza urged regulators to provide “universal rules that give investors predictability.”
Huertas dismissed the notion that ESG is losing relevance, saying, “We don’t think it’s a fad.” He emphasized that ATR sees sustainability “as a core driver of innovation.”
Looking ahead, Hulst said the market remains about “2,000 aircraft short of equilibrium” and will likely take “into the next decade” to reach balance. While Boeing continues research into new aircraft designs, he said, “the market, the technology and the company all need to be ready” — conditions that are not yet aligned.
Lessor Finance Panel
Moderating the discussion, David Berkery, partner in the finance group at Vinson & Elkins, opened with an overview of the current financing environment — where active trading, investor appetite and evolving capital structures are shaping lessor strategies across the aviation sector.
Claudia Ziemer, senior vice president of finance at Azorra, described the company’s growth since its founding in 2016 by John Evans and a seasoned aviation team. “We have an order book with Airbus and Embraer,” she said, noting Azorra’s focus on the 100-150-seat market and its expansion to a 61-person global team. The company, she added, engages in “opportunistic M&A” and recently tapped the unsecured bond market twice within a year.
Sarah Conway, director at Ashland Place Finance, said her firm — founded in 2021 — has built its reputation on responsiveness and speed. “In this market where trading is very active, you need to know financing is secured,” she said. “At the end of the day, we’re the debt, not the equity in the transaction.”
Vinodh Srinivasan, managing director at Mizuho Americas, and Kalash Pandey, managing director at Goldman Sachs, discussed investor dynamics in aviation finance.
Srinivasan noted that aviation remains attractive because it allows investors to “deploy capital in size,” with returns often exceeding those in asset classes like railcars or containers. Pandey added that, across transportation securitization, “there’s very little issuance outside aircraft assets,” making aviation a preferred play for scale.
Berkery asked whether new types of investors are entering the market. “Yes,” said Pandey. “Infrastructure and insurance capital have come in creatively over the last 12 to 18 months.” Srinivasan added that “quite a bit of capital is chasing the sector,” driven by expectations of interest rate cuts.
The panel explored the importance of investment-grade ratings for large balance-sheet lessors. “Every basis point counts,” Srinivasan said, though non-investment-grade firms “can still be successful without tapping unsecured markets.” Ziemer noted that Azorra achieved two positive rating changes within its first year of being rated.
Discussion turned to the asset-backed securities (ABS) market. Pandey said investor sentiment has improved since pandemic-era losses: “Those who waited to liquidate in 2024 saw positive returns — if that doesn’t restore confidence, I don’t know what will.” Srinivasan said a return of ABS e-notes is “feasible but challenging,” predicting gradual momentum into next year.
On structural risk, Conway emphasized that “correctly structuring deals and managing risk/reward” will help maintain investor confidence and support AAA-rated products. Pandey observed that “larger private equity players” are driving issuance, with “more leverage on the margin,” while Srinivasan forecast “inevitable consolidation” ahead. Pandey agreed, but said “healthy competition remains in the space.”
Adam’s View of the Industry
Adam Pilarski, president of AVITAS Inc., returned to the ISTAT stage with his trademark wit and data-rich perspective on global economic and aviation trends, examining how “American exceptionalism” is evolving and what it means for the industry’s future.
Pilarski opened with a reminder of the United States’ outsized global influence — accounting for 26% of world GDP, 19% of global revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs), 40% of Nobel Prizes and half of international payments made in U.S. dollars, despite representing only 4% of the world’s population. “Liberty, a market economy, and an independent central bank have long underpinned this dominance,” he said, alongside values like academic freedom and scientific decision-making.
However, Pilarski warned, “all of this is changing.” Rising political divisions, a retreat from globalization and resurgent nationalism are reshaping the world order. “Uncertainty affects real outcomes,” he noted, citing FedEx’s statement that tariffs reduced its quarterly revenue by $150 million.
Known for his colorful framing, Pilarski likened past eras to hit songs: when the world faced economic turmoil, “Highway to Hell”; during boom periods, “Everything Is Awesome”; and today’s uneasy climate, “I Wanna Be Sedated.”
In the short term, Pilarski forecast continued inflation and uneven economic growth. “The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma,” he said. “Weakness argues for lowering rates, but inflation argues against it.”
Longer term, Pilarski pointed to structural shifts — deglobalization, decarbonization and rising tariffs — that will gradually erode U.S. dominance and the dollar’s global role. “We’re moving from efficiency to equality and stability,” he said, predicting higher military spending in Europe and the potential for stagflation.
Turning to aviation, Pilarski questioned whether the long-accepted link between GDP and RPK growth still applies. Traffic recovered after COVID, he said, but faces new realities. Supply shortages and environmental pressures could lead to lower traffic growth, slower fleet expansion, but higher airline profitability. His advice to airlines: “Aspire to be a monopoly.”
He closed with a succinct summary: “More uncertainties, deglobalization, inflation; less traffic and slower fleet growth — and more lawyers.”
Cargo Panel
Moderating the Cargo Panel discussion, Mylène Scholnick, formerly head of global fleet management at Amazon Air, guided a conversation that explored freight market dynamics, fleet supply and conversions, and the impact of tariffs and engine availability on cargo operations.
Nadeem Sultan, senior vice president of cargo planning and freighters at Emirates, described the scale of the airline’s cargo operations, noting that while it is often considered a smaller business unit, “last year we were around $5.5 billion.” Emirates currently operates 11 Boeing 777 freighters and will take delivery of 10 more next year.
Steve Rimmer, CEO of Altavair, said OEMs continue to struggle with supply constraints across the board, freighters included. “We’ve never seen as few new freighter programs delivering new planes,” he said, adding that with the Airbus A350 freighter not expected to enter service until 2027, “we’ve got a very interesting scenario of no new freighters.” This, he said, has fueled growing demand for conversions. “For us as a lessor, constrained supply usually means better pricing,” he added, “but when feedstock is higher than anticipated, it’s hard to meet demand.”
Richard Greener, head of cargo at Aercap, agreed that conversion programs are now the most practical path forward. “We thought our conversion would take three years — it took six,” he said, pointing to increasing oversight in certification.
From the operator’s perspective, Sultan said Emirates continues to experience “very strong” cargo demand, with steady 2%-3% monthly growth over the past 30 months. “The tariffs have led to some redeployment,” he noted, “but the industry as a whole is growing.”
Richard Broekman, chief commercial officer and head of sustainability at Atlas Air, said U.S.-centric carriers have faced greater disruption. “The tariffs have caused a lot of uncertainty, especially the de minimis aspect,” he explained. “The large e-commerce companies have mind-boggling volume, and if they are impacted, that would affect freighters.”
Rimmer added that Altavair’s feedstock strategy has benefited from early commitments in the widebody space. “We had a significant number of 777-300ERs,” he said, noting that passenger airlines’ long-term fleet extensions and costly cabin upgrades have reduced availability for conversions. He also cited challenges with engine supply: “As much as we love the GE90, it’s hard to get engines today.” Sultan confirmed that the availability and cost of parts remain a concern.
On the policy front, Broekman noted that tariff uncertainty continues to cloud the market outlook. “No one can give an update because no one knows what Trump will do next,” he said. “We’re at least seeing some manufacturing spreading out.”
Fireside Chat: Engine Marketplace and Technology Developments
In a discussion on innovation and market trends, Bryson Monteleone, principal at BPMaero LLC, spoke with Luke Mallows, senior vice president of marketing and lessors at Rolls-Royce, about the company’s recent performance and future engine technology.
“We had a good summer following Paris,” Mallows said, citing major orders from Riyadh Air and continued demand for the A330neo. “There are still lots more deals to close before the year ends.”
Mallows outlined progress on Rolls-Royce’s UltraFan program, which has been in development since the mid-2010s. The first demonstrator ran in 2023, with a second due next year and a narrowbody version expected by 2026-2027. “We need to bring at least a 10%-15% improvement,” he said. “To make it worthwhile, it has to be game-changing.” While confident in the technology, he added that partnering for large-scale production and MRO support “will be useful.”
Asked about timelines, Mallows said, “I’d be surprised to see anything until the 2040s on widebody. Narrowbody, maybe the end of the next decade.”
Turning to the Trent 1000, he reported certification in June for phase-one upgrades, with phase two planned for early 2026. “No OEM ever wants to see an aircraft on the ground,” he said. “The product is getting to a position of stability.”
Monteleone noted that continuous upgrades complicate asset valuation. Mallows agreed, explaining that long design cycles mean “the technology you’re playing with is different from what’s available 20 years later,” adding that Rolls-Royce’s focus remains on airline performance, not asset value.
On fleet support, Mallows said about 80 A330s are covered under TotalCare and that Rolls-Royce will double MRO capacity between 2022 and 2026.
Sustainability Award Fireside Chat With GA Telesis
In a discussion on innovation and accountability in aviation sustainability, Abdol Moabery, founder, president and CEO of GA Telesis, spoke with Ulrike Zeigler, president of impact e.V. and member of the ISTAT Sustainability Committee, about his company’s ongoing efforts to embed sustainability across every aspect of its operations.
Moabery said receiving the ISTAT Sustainability Award “was a testament to the hard work my team has been doing for years.” He explained that GA Telesis’ Green-Time Engine Leasing program and broader business model have “always had a sustainability angle,” even before the industry prioritized environmental performance.
“Clients initially only looked at cost savings,” he said. “Sustainability didn’t become important until about 2016.”
Looking ahead, Moabery highlighted GA Telesis’ Digital Innovation Group (DIG) and its patented technology, WILBUR, which “tokenizes every part of an airplane.” The system aims to eliminate decades of paper-based maintenance records by digitizing aircraft documentation for transfer between owners. “It will make inspections, intervals and records entirely digital,” he said, reducing waste and improving efficiency.
Moabery also emphasized collaboration between OEMs and the aftermarket to create a circular economy. “If the aftermarket can receive the data it needs from the OEMs to maximize asset value, fewer parts would have to be manufactured,” he said.
Discussing the balance between commercial realities and sustainability goals, Moabery said, “There’s a cost, and we all have to accept that cost.” GA Telesis has incorporated SAF into its operations, reducing carbon emissions by 24.3% last year. “Maybe on a global scale that doesn’t mean much,” he said, “but if everyone contributed a little, it would add up.”
Fireside Chat With Turkish Airlines
In a conversation on airline financing and fleet growth, Bertrand Grabowski, CEO of BG Aviation Consulting, spoke with Murat Şeker, chief financial officer of Turkish Airlines, about the carrier’s approach to liquidity, diversification and long-term expansion.
Şeker said the financing environment has strengthened considerably since the pandemic. “We’ve added more than 150 aircraft since 2020,” he noted. “Last year we had 44 financiers providing liquidity — this year, more than 70.” Managing a US$14 billion debt portfolio across a 500-aircraft fleet, Turkish Airlines deliberately pursues diversity in funding sources. “There are cases where we pay a higher premium to diversify,” he said.
Looking ahead, Şeker said the airline expects 80 deliveries in the next two years and 15 widebodies per year starting in 2027. Of the US$11 billion in financing arranged over the past five years, US$8 billion supported widebodies. “Forty-two percent was ECA, 25% private insurance and 30% commercial,” he said, adding that the carrier may return to sale-and-leaseback (SLB) transactions to maintain flexibility. While acknowledging bank limits and tightening terms, Şeker said liquidity remains healthy. “We were able to get generous terms right after the pandemic, but the market has normalized,” he said. “We’ll revisit our leasing scheme as demand rises.”
On aircraft trading, Şeker said Turkish Airlines welcomes lessors moving assets between owners: “It puts our aircraft in a good position — it’s a currency.”
Discussing growth priorities, he cited long-haul expansion to the Americas and the Far East, with plans to add a second Asian flight bank. He also said the carrier continues to face Pratt & Whitney engine availability issues, which could last “until the middle of 2027.”
His advice to airline leaders: “Be cautious but optimistic. The industry always comes back.”
Keynote Presentation
Ian Malin, chief financial officer of Wizz Air Holdings, opened his keynote by highlighting the airline’s continued focus on Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) — a region he described as “still underpenetrated” and rich with opportunity. “The fleet in this area needs to catch up,” he said.
Wizz Air’s network, he explained, is built around three pillars: Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Western Europe. “During COVID, we spread our footprint wide,” he said. “Since then, we’ve identified what works and what doesn’t.” The airline has since consolidated its growth, closing its Austrian base but maintaining five in Italy and 20 aircraft in the U.K., while continuing to see demand in migratory travel between Eastern Europe and Italy.
Malin noted that while populations in several CEE markets have remained flat or declined since 2010, seat capacity has risen sharply and now exceeds pre-pandemic levels.
“CEE seats per capita remain less than half of Western Europe,” he said, “but GDP growth has outpaced the West for more than a decade.” With air travel historically growing two to three times faster than GDP, Wizz Air projects a 6% compound annual growth rate in seat demand through 2030 — requiring an estimated 200 additional aircraft in the region alone.
Asked about financing that growth, Malin addressed criticism that Wizz Air profits primarily from sale-leasebacks. “All of our aircraft are leased except two,” he said. “Sale-leasebacks are an important tool for a growing airline, and the model has worked well for us. But we’re a maturing company — we want to build a balance sheet that investors and employees believe in.” Wizz Air plans to gradually shift toward more owned aircraft while maintaining sale-leasebacks as part of its funding mix.
Secondary Market Trading Panel
Moderated by Caitriona Jennings, vice president of aircraft trading at Aviation Capital Group, the Secondary Market Trading Panel explored liquidity trends, investor behavior and evolving dynamics in the aircraft trading market.
Lisa Lyons, head of trading and investor marketing at Dubai Aerospace Enterprise, said “the average age of aircraft being traded is over a year older than it was five years ago,” with only 20% representing new-technology types. She added that bilateral transactions are on the rise, reflecting both intense competition and increased flexibility among buyers.
Pat Madigan, head of commercial for EMEA at Genesis, said the market remains “very competitive,” but midlife aircraft continue to offer strong value. “Our thesis as a midlife lessor has been clear since 2017,” he said. “We love the A320ceo family — there’s tremendous value in that space.”
Lee Carey, chief investment officer at Eirtrade, noted that constrained supply is forcing buyers to look at opportunities differently. “We’ve begun to focus on on-lease aircraft,” he said, adding that it’s “a methodology to build a pipeline” rather than a move toward scaling a leasing platform.
Mike Yeomans, director of advisory and consulting at IBA, said engine and MRO challenges will continue to weigh on values. “The engine issues with new tech will not be solved in a two-to-three-year timeframe,” he said, adding that labor shortages and maintenance delays are keeping costs high.
Looking ahead, Madigan predicted industry consolidation, with “four to five large-scale lessors” likely to dominate the market. Still, Carey expects “demand to remain high across all facets — from new aircraft to end-of-life assets,” while Lyons anticipates “a gradual uptick in new-tech trades” as OEM production stabilizes.
Airline Panel
Moderated by Córa McCormack, executive vice president for EMEA at SMBC Aviation Capital, the Airline Panel explored fleet strategy, operational challenges and sustainability priorities across Europe, the Nordics and Africa.
Niklas Hardange, vice president of fleet management at Scandinavian Airlines System, said SAS has focused heavily on punctuality and reliability after a difficult few years.
“It’s really paid off,” he said. “We’re now at the top of the list of the most punctual airlines, and our customer satisfaction scores reflect that.” He added that the A321neo serves as the carrier’s “Swiss army knife” for balancing flexibility and efficiency.
Högni Helgason, director of fleet management at Icelandair, noted that the airline’s 55-aircraft fleet — primarily Boeing 737 MAXs — will shift away from widebodies. “We plan to exit our 767s and replace them with narrowbody capacity,” he said, adding that the carrier’s operations “depend on punctuality, especially given Iceland’s unique environment.”
Ahmed Marei, vice president of planning at Egyptair Holding Company, said the airline operates 71 aircraft across 85 routes in 56 countries. “This year, we’re the most improved airline in Africa,” he said. “We are now a three-star airline and aiming for four.” Egyptair recently added an A350 and continues to invest in new aircraft “to provide customers a better product.”
A live audience poll showed 80% of attendees felt OEMs are not sufficiently incentivized to innovate sustainably. “They’re focused on stabilizing production rather than advancing emissions reduction,” Hardange said, while Helgason added that “the innovation needs to come from within.”
Despite geopolitical uncertainty, Marei said Egyptair remains optimistic: “We will expand and keep working, no matter what happens around us.”
Finance Panel
Moderated by Christine Davin, head of risk and operations at IAT Leasing, the Finance Panel examined the current financing environment, market competition, and shifting regional and credit dynamics across aviation finance.
Stephen Murphy, chief executive officer of AV Air Finance, said the market remains “very liquid” and favorable for borrowers. “It’s a great time to be a borrower, but with that comes increased competition,” he said, noting that the highrate environment and limited new deliveries could eventually force a correction.
Olivier Trauchessec, head of global aviation at MUFG, agreed. “When times are good, everyone can find financing,” he said. “But there’s another crisis looming — you need to be ready for it.” He cautioned that lenders must ensure their underwriting can withstand the next downturn.
Laurent Floquet, managing director and head of aviation financing and advisory for EMEA at Societe Generale, said the bank is expanding beyond traditional aviation lending to support clients “even in the worst of times.” Corina Sylira, managing director of lessor origination and capital markets at Itasca, added that her firm’s portfolio has grown rapidly to 77 assets valued at US$4 billion and is now focused on building stronger bank and insurance relationships.
Panelists noted regional differences, with Sylira observing “super-competitive” conditions in Asia-Pacific and more balanced deal flow in EMEA.
Looking ahead, Trauchessec predicted rising widebody deliveries and increased trading activity, while Murphy said, “My hope is the lending markets rationalize a bit and some of the heat comes out.” Floquet expects a “busy end of the year” as production ramps up.
A Chief Economist’s View of the World
Stephen Burnside, newly appointed global head of consultancy at Cirium, shared his perspective on the global economy and long-term aviation trends, noting that “aviation remains a megatrend benefactor” even amid uncertainty.
He observed that commercial passenger traffic has contracted only four times in nearly a century, underscoring the industry’s resilience. “The opportunity to increase capacity to meet demand remains significant,” he said, citing population growth and distribution patterns that continue to support expansion.
Burnside also addressed energy markets, calling oil “the commodity that dominates our industry.” He predicted that global oil supply will remain plentiful for the next two to three decades. “Oil is dirt cheap right now,” he said, adding that such low prices make it difficult to close the business case for next-generation propulsion technologies.
Turning to macroeconomic conditions, Burnside encouraged the audience to “get comfortable with uncertainty.” He said many companies are struggling to determine whether current volatility is temporary or structural. “Money is cheap right now,” he noted, warning that the environment risks “overstimulation in the economy.”
Recent U.S. data, he said, suggest the labor market is weaker than previously believed, while consumer sentiment reflects waning confidence. Despite these mixed signals, Burnside emphasized that aviation’s long-term fundamentals remain sound.
“This industry has demonstrated time and again that it grows through cycles,” he said.
Regional Crossover Panel
Moderated by Mary Prettyman, immediate past president of ISTAT and head of marketing at Pratt & Whitney, the Regional Crossover Panel explored the often-overlooked regional aircraft segment — an essential but compact part of the global aviation ecosystem.
Mark Hughes, chief commercial officer at Falko, said his company manages a portfolio of more than 200 aircraft in the 70- to 150-seat range. “We see excess demand over supply across almost every aircraft type,” he said. “If you have a good, serviceable aircraft today, you’ve got a number of options for where it could go.”
Simon McNamara, head of government and corporate affairs at Loganair, described the Scottish regional airline’s 36-aircraft operation as “traditional, old-fashioned flying,” with short domestic routes — including one 90-second sector — and 75% of its fleet leased. “We’re debt-free and maintain a healthy cash balance,” he said. “Leasing gives us flexibility.”
Olga Razzhivina, director at Oriel and a ISTAT Certified Appraiser, noted that certain 50-seat aircraft “are flying without a successor,” creating operational challenges but also opportunities in the U.S. market, where “the shortage of regional pilots has solidified demand.”
Anne-Bart Tieleman, chief executive officer of TrueNoord, said the leasing environment “is quite good” but constrained by low production rates. “There’s good logic for the bigger lessors to stay out of this market,” he said. “That’s why regional lessors need to exist.”
Ultimately, the sector is important: regional aircraft serve 40% of the world’s commercial airports yet account for only 20% of global operations.
Tieleman summarized the outlook succinctly: “This is a niche market. It will never be as big as the narrowbody market, but it’s vital.”
Lessor CEO Panel
Closing the conference, Marilyn Gan, senior vice president and head of Asia Pacific at Vmo Air, led a wide-ranging discussion with five of the industry’s leading lessor CEOs on resilience, consolidation, supply chain pressures and the path forward for aircraft leasing.
Thomas Baker, CEO and president of Aviation Capital Group, described the current market as “constructive” but cyclical by nature. “I’m on my third Black Swan,” he said. “You have to grind through it. This industry is resilient — it’s been proven over and over again. But the punch in the nose is always just around the corner.”
Kevin Milligan, CEO of Crestone Air Partners, echoed that sentiment, noting that competitive intensity remains high. “Everyone is chasing the same dream,” he said. “You need certainty of execution and a unique value proposition.” Eamonn Bane, CEO of Macquarie AirFinance, added that “a diversified origination channel” helps weather those cycles, while Edward O’Byrne, CEO of AviLease, said his company slowed its growth pace this year after earning investment-grade ratings from Moody’s and Fitch. “We didn’t see the right returns,” he said. “Our focus is on achieving the right scale with the right liability structure.”
Firoz Tarapore, CEO of Dubai Aerospace Enterprise, emphasized the cyclical nature of both leasing and MRO. “We have to remind ourselves this is a cyclical business,” he said. “We run both our leasing and regional MRO divisions separately, and both continue to perform well.”
Supply chain challenges dominated much of the discussion. An audience poll showed 100% of respondents expressed some level of concern about delivery delays. O’Byrne called the disruptions “a blessing in disguise,” saying they enforced “capacity discipline” among airlines, while Baker and Bane agreed the pandemic had drained efficiency from maintenance and engineering networks. “Getting back to pre-COVID levels is extremely difficult,” Bane said.
The conversation turned to consolidation — 81% of attendees predicted more M&A activity within 12 months. Tarapore agreed: “There’s still room for the big to get bigger,” he said, though he cautioned about “diseconomies of scale” beyond a certain size. Milligan said smaller, agile platforms like Crestone “can be valuable partners for larger lessors.”
Panelists also discussed order books and sustainability. Baker called order economics “tough,” while O’Byrne and Bane noted delivery lead times have stretched from four to six years. Milligan added, “Our industry is driven by returns. It’s a dirty business, but it connects people and economies — it will take time before we move to a cleaner future.”
In closing, Gan asked how AI might change their operations. “We’re getting ready to get ready,” Baker admitted, while Bane said the technology “can provide good solutions, but it will take time.”
Networking and Other Activities
In addition to a robust lineup of educational sessions, ISTAT EMEA provided delegates with a wide range of opportunities to connect, learn and explore the city of Prague. From thought-provoking discussions to lively social events, networking remained at the heart of the conference experience.
Emerging professionals gathered for the ISTAT Rising Executives Event, moderated by Rebecca Callanan, vice president of commercial and investments at Hanwha Aviation, and featuring Ciara Reilly, vice president of capital markets and trading at Avolon.
The Women@ISTAT session, moderated by Kate Ruddy of Avolon, brought together Marie-Louise Philippe of Embraer and Donna Ager of Walkers Global. Their insights reinforced ISTAT’s ongoing commitment to fostering diversity and inclusion across all professional levels.
That commitment continued at the DEI Breakfast: Experiences from the Executive Leadership Program (ELP), where Andreja Likar of SMBC Aero Engine Lease, Lauren Kervick of Air Lease Corporation and Claudia Ziemer of Azorra shared lessons learned from their participation in the program.
Networking remained a defining feature throughout the event, from the vibrant Welcome and Networking Receptions at the Hilton Prague to Club ISTAT at the Roxy Prague, where delegates enjoyed one of the city’s most iconic nightlife venues. The conference concluded with a memorable Networking Dinner at the historic National House of Vinohrady, offering an elegant setting for delegates to celebrate the close of a successful event.
All ISTAT ONLINE OFFERINGS