Jetrader

Appraisal: Boeing 787-8

Photo Courtesy of Tony Best

It has already been almost 14 years since the first Boeing 787-8 entered service with All Nippon Airways (ANA) in September 2011. Yet it remains one of the most modern twin-aisle aircraft in the market, serving the lower end of the 240-330 seat segment, which the 787 family — complemented by the larger 787-9 and 787-10 variants — offers.

The Dreamliner was the first commercial aircraft to feature a carbon fiber-reinforced polymer (CRFP) airframe, making up approximately 50% of its primary structure. This advanced material significantly reduces weight, improves fuel efficiency and has the potential of meaningfully extending the useful economic life due to its superior fatigue and corrosion characteristics when compared to aluminum structures.

Despite a series of production challenges, with the most recent one being quality assurance issues leading to a surplus of undelivered aircraft (36 estimated remaining as of April 2025), the 787 program is on course to be one of the most successful twin-aisle aircraft families in history, with total orders now approaching 2,000 aircraft. The 787-8 is seen as a good route-prover and startup small twin-aisle due to its low trip cost. According to Cirium’s tracked aircraft utilization data, the variant’s average stage length last year was 5.3 hours (averaging almost two flights per day), therefore nicely serving the middle of the market from a range as well as from a size perspective.

Nonetheless, as is the case with most “first and smallest” in a family, its popularity and the demand for new 787s has been greatly overtaken by the 787-9, which offers better seat-mile economics as well as a higher payload and extra range. While almost 400 787-8s are in service today with 42 airline operators, only 33 -8s (or 4% of the family) are currently on backlog — with only one new delivery in 2024 (out of 51 deliveries for the 787 family).

The aircraft is clearly past its production peak and experiences an accelerated maturity with regard to its position in the production cycle, which is a rather negative indicator for the medium- and long-term value outlook when compared to the other twin-aisles of its generation.

The 787-8 is offered with a choice of powerplant: GE GEnx-1B and Rolls-Royce Trent 1000. The Trent 1000 suffered issues with faster-than-expected deterioration of intermediate pressure compressor (IPC) turbine blades, resulting in many aircraft being withdrawn from service in 2017-2019 for inspection and repair. The current variant of Trent 1000 is the TEN, with earlier variants being dubbed “Package B” and “Package C,” and some of these engines remain in service. As the Rolls-Royce option still hasn’t matched GE’s time-on-wing performance, the former has gradually lost market share — with a total of 66% of the delivered 787-8s being powered by GE engines, versus 34% by Rolls-Royce.

From a Market Value perspective, the 787-8 variant suffered a big drop in older values during the pandemic but is now making a full recovery amid the shortage in newer twin-aisle lift. Excluding the heavier early-build aircraft (Line Numbers 1-22), our Market Value opinions now range from US$43.6 million for a 2011 vintage (“half-life”) to US$127.9 million for a 2025-build aircraft (“full-life”) for a GEnx-1B67 PIP II powered aircraft.

The engine fragmentation has worked against Rolls-Royce, as we are applying a negative specification adjuster between -US$3m (TEN) to up to -US$12.8m (Package B) for the equivalent 67,000 lb. thrust Rolls-Royce engine.

Market Lease Rates experienced significant increases last year and have since remained stable at their current level as observed by multiple transactions, including lease extensions and new leases since the second half of 2024. Market Lease Rates stand between US$530,000/month for a 2011 vintage to US$822,000/month for a 2024 build and US$865,000/month for a new-build 2025 aircraft.

A total of three 787s have been parted out so far, two in 2023 and one in early 2024, all of which were the -8 variant. It took about 60 days to tear down the first two aircraft, which required detailed planning and execution as the carbon-composite structure remains difficult to recycle. Best practices for recycling and repurposing advanced materials are yet to be established according to the Aircraft Fleet Recycling Association (AFRA), but it is likely to become an increasingly critical future concern as these fleets age.

A production freighter version of the 787 is seen as likely to be developed by the 2030s, based on either the 787-8 or -9, as a replacement for the 767-300F. Boeing has confirmed that the latter will end production in 2027. A market for 787 passenger-to-freighter conversions is also expected in the future.