Q&A With Rob Morris of Cirium Ascend Consultantcy
As he prepares for retirement, Rob Morris reflects on a 35-year journey from aircraft enthusiast to one of the industry’s most trusted voices in aviation consultancy. In this candid conversation, the Cirium Ascend Consultancy leader shares lessons learned, industry warnings and the enduring passion that has guided his career.
Jetrader: You’ve had a 30-year journey in aviation, from British Aerospace to Cirium. Looking back, as you prepare for retirement, what first drew you to the industry, and what has kept you in it all these years?
Rob Morris (RM): Although I embarked on my aviation career in 1990, commercial aviation was always a passion. That passion was born as long ago as Christmas 1974 when my parents gave me a pair of binoculars as a present. My older brother suggested we take them to Heathrow Airport on Boxing Day, where the 11-year-old me spent a wonderful day watching aircraft depart to shores I could only imagine and dream about. However, through a series of poor advice and decisions, I found myself working through the 1980s as a research chemist at what was then termed the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority, having collected my bachelor’s and master’s degrees in chemistry-related subjects along the way.
Aviation remained a hobby, and as I became more involved in writing for enthusiast magazines, I realized escape may be possible via a career change. Having spotted a job advert for a database analyst at British Aerospace in Hatfield, I found myself at an interview in early 1990. Although the job I applied for was gone, another market analyst role was offered, and I accepted. I still vividly remember the end of my first day in May 1990, thinking how fortunate I was to be paid to indulge my hobby. And 35 years later, it feels the same. The hobby became the job, but the passion never died. My desire to understand how aircraft, airlines, leasing, finance, etc., work and how data can help us understand all that remains as strong as ever. I could not have imagined the people I would meet the friends I would make, the places I would visit, the events I would attend and the experiences I would enjoy in the past 35 years. Every day has been fun (well, mostly). I simply wish I had known back in the 1970s that jobs and careers like these existed, but I’m grateful that I took that career change risk in 1990, which led me to where I am today.
Jetrader: You’ve worked across government, OEM, leasing and consultancy roles. How have those experiences shaped your perspective
on the industry today?
RM: Each role brought new and different lessons. At the OEM, I learned the commercial edge, how to think about products in the context of the competitive landscape and how to maximize value. At the Department of Trade and Industry, I learned the importance of evidence in support of policy, business cases, etc. I also learned to think beyond the immediate commercial case to understand how additional value is created. At the leasing company, I learned the true value of a strong commercial team, working together to “make the boat go faster” when we sometimes faced significant challenges with our product and market. And at what is now Cirium Ascend, I learned the value of strong leadership to develop individuals to their maximum potential, all the time working in a dynamic sector where the only constant is change. 2025’s industry is so different from 1990’s (including an airline fleet that is three times larger, through a period with four cyclic downturns and four subsequent recoveries, including the latest, which perhaps is just underway). But most of the challenges remain the same. The tools we have today are very different. In 1990, we had no mobile devices, limited computers and very limited data. But much of what we did — trying to spot opportunities and manage risk — are the same.
Jetrader: As you get ready to close this chapter, what are you most proud of in your career?
RM: That’s a very tough question. As an object-oriented person, I can recall many projects that I am extremely proud of, including playing a significant part in some BAe 146/Avro RJ sales in my early career, being involved in launch investment cases like A380, CSeries and many others at DTI, delivering projects to clients at Ascend that resulted in significant strategy changes at those clients, etc. But as I reflect, I think I am proudest of the colleagues I have worked with over the past 10 years at Ascend, who I have watched develop and grow into new roles at other businesses. Mentoring younger colleagues is something that I will miss the most, although I hope I can still be here with advice in my new chapter.
Jetrader: You recently joked that “nothing can go wrong now” in 2025, but what are the biggest risks or blind spots you’re watching most closely?
RM: Remember that “nothing can go wrong now” is an irony borne of my love of sports. When my football (soccer) team goes 2-0 up, I mutter “nothing can go wrong now.” Yet often it does, as complacency creeps in on the pitch and the team loses focus, thinking the match is already won. I have seen my team lose from 4-0 up (that was painful).
At many events last year, I sensed a complacency creeping into our sector — demand recovery was complete, supply was a mess, and values and lease rates were at record highs. What could go wrong now?
This is the first cycle in my career where supply has significantly lagged demand. There seems to be a collective belief that the lack of supply will endure for the entirety of this cycle (however long it may be), leading values and lease rates to remain high, driving strong financial performance. There is much that can go wrong. Geopolitical risk is ever-present. Macroeconomics drives our sector, yet many were caught by interest rate increases over the past few years. Demand may soften (already this year we have seen IATA’s 8% growth projection moderated to 5.8%, and the schedule indicates the second half of the year may be even softer). Lack of progress toward net zero will inevitably dampen demand growth long term. Supply will inevitably increase as OEMs finally deal with their supply chain challenges. And once all those 700 parked PW 1000G-powered aircraft are finally finished with engine inspections and able to return to service, that will be an additional new aircraft kicker to supply.
Finance and leasing is all about risk management, and there are plenty of risks that could come home to roost, hence the “joke” is really a reminder to retain focus even in the best of times.
Jetrader: Do you believe the current optimism across airlines, lessors and OEMs is justified? Or are there signs of overheating in any particular segment?
RM: I think the leasing sector has matured, and the high double-digit returns that were once commonplace have now become far harder to achieve. I think the OEM duopoly is also mature, and the biggest challenge there is to achieve net zero. I am not a climate scientist, but it does seem clear that we need to do something about CO2 reduction, where technology inertia and the laws of physics render our sector probably the most difficult to mitigate. I worry about long-term forecasts and the potential to continue to grow (or, perhaps more clearly put, be allowed to grow) if we cannot demonstrate credible progress. But at heart, I am an optimist (again borne from my lifelong support of Reading Football Club; more often losers than winners, but each time we lose, we retain optimism that we will win next time). Commercial aviation is a sector that generates massive social and economic wealth globally, and provided we tell that story properly, there will always be growth and opportunity.
Jetrader: You’ve challenged the narrative around a major aircraft supply deficit. What do you think is misunderstood about today’s fleet dynamics?
RM: It is a fact that there are a very large number of aircraft that we expected to be manufactured and delivered between 2019 and 2024, which were not, as a consequence of both COVID-19 and the MAX issue. Most state that number and leave listeners to imply to themselves that this is the size of the deficit. But it is also a fact that more than four years of growth have been lost as a consequence of COVID (extrapolating the long-term growth we have enjoyed and comparing it to the current passenger traffic base). So, demand for many of those aircraft that weren’t delivered doesn’t exist.
It is also a fact that there have been far fewer aircraft retirements over the past few years than were predicted in 2018 — at Cirium Ascend, we estimate as many as 1,000 fewer single-aisles alone. Hence, the fleet in service today is almost the right size for the passenger demand base. Today I estimate the single-aisle deficit is maybe around 200 aircraft and twin-aisle perhaps around 750. We could argue that demand may have been frustrated by lack of supply, and that is harder to measure, but demand growth softening this year is due to macroeconomics and geopolitics rather than a lack of aircraft supply.
My conclusion is that we are not short of aircraft per se, but I can accept that we are short of new aircraft as a consequence of OEMs’ inability to ramp up as planned, and I think the issue is more significant for widebodies/twinaisles than it is for single-aisles.
Jetrader: How serious is the impact of engine issues on supply chain recovery and operator confidence?
RM: I think the issues with GTF (and to be clear, LEAP is not without issues either), specifically the lack of durability/time-on-wing and consequent higher maintenance costs, are a very serious issue for longer-term confidence in new technology. Remember that the neo/MAX/A220/E2 were designed and sold on promises of 15%+ fuel-burn savings and consequent reduction in operating cost (on the basis that maintenance costs would be very similar to prior generation engines). There is now a risk that economic savings will be wiped out with higher maintenance costs and shorter intervals. It is almost 10 years since the GTF entered service, and we still see issues. Lack of technology maturity will inevitably cause operators (and perhaps also investors) to question new technology and its fit for service, hence delaying further technology contribution to net zero.
Jetrader: Lessors are trimming older aircraft from their portfolios, and leasing share has dipped slightly. What does this mean for the shape of the leasing landscape in the second half of the decade?
RM: Although leasing share is declining marginally, we need to be clear that the global leasing portfolio is still growing as the global fleet of aircraft in service grows. However, the market share is receding slightly because there aren’t sufficient new aircraft coming into the front end of portfolios. Hence, sale leaseback markets remain very competitive, and perhaps fewer new deliveries are being offered for sale leasebacks as airlines seek to rebuild their balance sheets and prefer to “own” rather than lease assets.
Airlines are also purchasing more aircraft out of leases to further rebuild, plus lessors are parting out aircraft (including some relatively young) as a consequence of high demand and values for spare engines.
I think all of this means that lessors generally are struggling to achieve their goals, which largely revolve around capital deployment and growth. One mechanism to achieve the latter is via merger and/or acquisition and, hence, as we have seen significant activity even through the pandemic. I expect we will see more of this going forward. I suspect leasing market share will continue to hover around the 52% mark, but of course, the global portfolio will continue to grow in line with the overall global fleet.
Jetrader: Cirium Ascend Consultancy just became the first firm to win the Appraiser of the Year award 10 times. What does this recognition mean to you personally, and what do you think sets your team apart in a competitive field?
RM: Our entire team is very proud of this, not least because the award is by public vote, so it is effectively an endorsement of our team’s service from the market. Personally, it means a massive amount because, along with George Dimitroff, our head of valuations, I have led the Cirium Ascend Consultancy team of Appraisers through seven of these awards. In a competitive field, we have striven to provide excellence, and a key part of that is transparency. We encourage our team to pursue their ISTAT certification, and during my tenure, we have grown to eight ISTAT-Certified Appraisers, with many more colleagues who have completed the qualification when part of our team but who have then moved to different challenges. I expect to see that roster continue to grow.
We are also committed to transparency of methodology, data capture, etc. Remember that several years ago, Dick Forsberg wrote a paper about Appraisers and appraisals, which concluded with several recommendations. Those were already a large part of our commitment at Cirium Ascend, and I believe that is why the market has continued to endorse us with this award.
Jetrader: What excites you most about where the industry is headed in the next five to 10 years?
RM: I think there is more that worries me than excites me about the next 10 years. The challenge to decarbonize is significant, and technology inertia and the relatively slow pace of innovation isn’t helpful. Although recovery from the demand impact of COVID is complete, supply-side challenges look set to persist for a long time yet, and that is also a concern. I am potentially excited by developments around blended wing body, supersonics and even hybrid/electric propulsion, but over my 35-year career, I have seen all of these before, and in 2025, we are hardly further than we were in 1995. But I can shortly put my cynicism to one side and become an interested and (slightly) dispassionate observer.
Jetrader: If you could give one piece of advice to the next generation of aviation professionals, what would it be?
RM: Work hard and never stop developing. It is a truism in life that nothing comes for free, and it is also a truism that hard work begets reward. Also, always remain confident in your own abilities. There will always be challenges in any career, but with confidence and ability, these can always be overcome.
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