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Aviation Faces Uncertainty, but Industry Leaders Emphasize Resilience

From geopolitical conflict and volatile fuel prices to supply chain constraints and evolving technologies, aviation leaders gathered at ISTAT Americas in San Diego from 8-10 March 2026 with no shortage of global challenges to discuss. Yet throughout the opening sessions of the conference, one message emerged consistently: Despite uncertainty, the aviation industry remains remarkably resilient.

“This industry is one of the most resilient industries in the world,” said Gerry Laderman, ISTAT president, during his opening remarks.

That theme echoed throughout the first day of the conference as executives, analysts and economists explored the implications of geopolitical tensions, fuel price volatility and structural changes shaping the aviation market.

Fuel Prices and Geopolitical Shocks

Geopolitics dominated the discussion during a fireside chat between Robin Hayes, chairman and CEO of Airbus in North America, and Phil LeBeau, CNBC’s auto and airline industry reporter. The conversation came as global markets reacted to escalating tensions in the Middle East and a rapid rise in crude oil prices.

Hayes noted that aviation has long operated in an environment shaped by geopolitical events.

“Airlines are very, very driven by geopolitical events,” Hayes said. “Any time you have a conflict break out, oil price is something that will normally go up.”

While rising fuel prices present challenges, Hayes emphasized that airlines have become highly efficient at adapting to such shocks.

“When I first joined JetBlue, oil was up to $147,” he said. “Airlines are incredibly efficient at responding to these shocks in the short and long term.”

Audience sentiment at the conference reflected similar concerns. In a poll conducted during the event, 76% of attendees identified geopolitics as the greatest risk to the aviation industry, far outpacing concerns about technology or safety.

Despite the uncertainty, many speakers stressed that the industry’s ability to adapt to disruption has strengthened over time.

Preparing for the Next Crisis

Executives participating in the airline finance panel emphasized that volatility is not unusual for aviation.

“This is an industry that gets hit with an asteroid with some frequency,” said Mike Leskinen, executive vice president and chief financial officer at United Airlines.

For airlines, the key to managing shocks lies in preparation and operational flexibility. Leskinen said United has been focused on strengthening its balance sheet and building customer loyalty since the pandemic.

“We’ve been preparing for a crisis since COVID ended,” he said. “Are we as healthy as we think?”

Other airline leaders echoed the importance of maintaining financial resilience and the ability to adapt quickly.

“Airlines always try to focus on the things we can control,” said Tom Doxey, chief financial officer at Southwest Airlines. “You need to structure the business for flexibility and control what you can control.”

For John Di Bert, executive vice president and chief financial officer at Air Canada, the challenge is responding to rapidly evolving conditions.

“Airlines are built for this agility,” he said. “It’s an orchestrated dance. We try to make decisions in the moment.”

Industry participants remain cautious about how long the current fuel price volatility may last. When attendees were asked where jet fuel prices would end the year, the largest share — 40% — predicted prices between $2.50 and $3 per gallon.

Chaos and Clarity

Adam Pilarski, president of AVITAS, offered a broader perspective on the current environment, describing it as a moment when multiple challenges are converging simultaneously.

“The chaos is everything happening all at once,” Pilarski said.

In addition to geopolitical conflicts, the industry continues to contend with supply chain disruptions, engine reliability issues and labor shortages. Pilarski argued that many of these developments were not entirely unpredictable.

“We have engine problems, we have parts problems, shortages, etc. Everything is falling apart,” he said.

Yet Pilarski also emphasized that aviation has historically weathered similar disruptions. New aircraft technologies and efficiency improvements have often been driven by periods of volatility, particularly when fuel prices rise.

At the same time, he cautioned that long-term economic and geopolitical shifts could gradually reshape the industry’s landscape. Among them are deglobalization, rising tariffs and changes in global economic influence.

“The role of the U.S. dollar will diminish,” Pilarski said, adding that broader economic trends could contribute to higher inflation in the years ahead.

Managing Risk in a Volatile World

The theme of uncertainty continued during a panel discussion on risk management, where industry legal and operational leaders discussed how companies prepare for an increasingly unpredictable environment.

“We don’t have Black Swan events anymore; it’s been a swarm of swans,” said Emily Wicker, partner at Clifford Chance, who moderated the session.

When conference attendees were asked about the biggest risk facing aviation, the overwhelming majority again pointed to geopolitics.

Panelists emphasized that preparation and operational discipline remain the most effective tools for managing risk.

“Our strongest defense is preparation,” said Christine Boucher, deputy general counsel and chief compliance officer at Delta Air Lines.

For Boucher, that preparation includes strong cybersecurity systems, continuous testing of operational resilience and regular crisis response drills.

Technology is also playing an increasingly important role in managing risk. When asked whether technology represents a risk or a solution for the aviation industry, 89% of conference attendees said it is primarily a solution.

A Resilient Industry

Despite the uncertainty surrounding fuel prices, geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions, many leaders at ISTAT Americas emphasized that aviation’s long-term outlook remains strong.

Demand for air travel continues to grow globally, and airlines and lessors have spent the past several years strengthening their financial and operational foundations.

For industry executives, volatility is not an anomaly but a defining characteristic of aviation.

As Leskinen summarized during the CFO panel discussion, airlines have learned that resilience must be built long before the next crisis arrives.

“This is the industry we’re in,” he said.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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