Q&A With John Vitale of AVITAS

As the 2026 recipient of the ISTAT Award, John Vitale, senior advisor and member of the board of AVITAS Inc., brings nearly three decades of leadership, valuation expertise and institutional memory to the conversation. In this wide-ranging Q&A, the longtime president and CEO of AVITAS reflects on the experiences that shaped his approach to aircraft valuation, the evolution of the aviation finance industry, the role of relationships in an opaque market and the enduring value of ISTAT as the industry’s connective tissue.

Jetrader: You began your career on the manufacturing and finance side of the industry, first at Douglas Aircraft Company and later at McDonnell Douglas Finance Corporation. How did those early roles shape the way you think about aircraft value and life cycle risk today?

John Vitale (JV): Starting my career there was invaluable — I can’t really put a number on it. When I eventually moved to AVITAS, I found myself favoring people with similar backgrounds because that early exposure gave me a broad understanding of how the industry actually works. Coming out of an OEM environment, you learn how aircraft are marketed, how airlines evaluate and choose aircraft, and how many different disciplines intersect in those decisions.

At McDonnell Douglas, I worked on multidisciplinary teams supporting aircraft sales. During the MD-11 campaigns in the late 1980s, my role focused on market forecasting, market planning and fleet planning — things like how an airline such as Delta might schedule an MD-11 on Pacific routes and what demand and load factors could realistically be expected.

At the same time, you’re working alongside engineers analyzing aircraft performance, fuel burn and maintenance requirements, and technical experts looking at payload and cargo trade-offs. A financial analyst would then pull all of that together into a business case. Being immersed in all those perspectives during an aircraft campaign exposed me to the spectrum of issues in fleet decisions, and that experience proved invaluable later in my career.
 

Jetrader: What did you study in school?
 

JV: My undergraduate degree was in finance. I didn’t come into the industry as an engineer, despite being surrounded by them. I married an engineer, our son and daughter-in-law are engineers, and my brother is an engineer. ISTAT Past President Joe Ozimek would say that my not being an engineer (specifically an aero engineer) is a flaw, but my background was in finance and economics, which is why I started as a market planning and financial analyst.

From there, I moved into financial analysis at Douglas and later into McDonnell Douglas Finance Corporation (MDFC), where I was responsible for residual value forecasting, aircraft appraisals for potential transactions and presenting my analysis of deals to credit committee. At MDFC, I was part of the asset management group, which gave me direct exposure to the secondary aircraft market: used aircraft trading, lease returns, including aircraft coming back from bankruptcies like Pan Am and Eastern Airlines in the early 1990s.

That experience taught me how maintenance condition, records quality and technical issues directly affect value. I was still part of multidisciplinary teams, even if my role was more focused, and that combination of financial, technical and transactional exposure set me up very well for appraisal work and advisory roles later on.

It’s hard to put a number on it, but one of the biggest advantages came over time, particularly in the early 1990s, when McDonnell Douglas and Douglas Aircraft Company didn’t have the strongest product in the marketplace and were losing market share, primarily to newcomer Airbus.

The company was struggling at times, and a lot of colleagues were leaving — either because they found other opportunities or because they were laid off. At the time, it was very stressful watching so many good people go out the door and wondering if you might be next. But all of a sudden, I end up at AVITAS in a consulting capacity with an instant network of friends and former colleagues all over the industry.  Some stayed and went through the merger with Boeing in the late 1990s, including John Feren, Tim Meyers, Christy Reese and Dan da Silva. Others went to other companies but stayed in aviation, like Frank Pray, Mary Prettyman, Mike Platt and Greg Conlon. Who knew that those trying times would actually end up to my advantage?

Jetrader: You spent nearly three decades as president and CEO of AVITAS. What were the defining moments that helped shape the firm’s reputation in aircraft valuation and advisory services?
 

JV: That’s a tough question, because when you’re in the middle of it, you’re not thinking in terms of defining moments — you’re just trying to get through your days. But there were a few milestones.

When I took over in 1997, the company had gone through a period of internal tumult. There was a lot of infighting and power plays — people thinking they should be running the company or should be the next CEO. Everyone was fighting, and I was just ducking. I was 32 years old, with a baby on the way, trying to keep my head down and do my work. Then, almost overnight, everyone above me was gone, and our parent company asked me to step in and take over.

Because of that experience — and probably my personality to begin with — my leadership style went in the opposite direction. I focused on harmony and stability. Over time, that really shaped AVITAS. We’ve had very little turnover, and when people do leave, they remain close friends and often become clients. Looking back, that was transformative for the firm. It wasn’t a defined strategy or something I had carefully mapped out — it was simply how I responded to the situation.

Later that same year, I got a call from Adam Pilarski, who was then chief economist at McDonnell Douglas. He had read about my promotion and called to congratulate me. I mentioned the call to Doug Kelly, and this was right around the Boeing-Douglas merger. Doug asked what Adam was planning to do and suggested we talk to him. I called Adam back, he stopped in to interview on his way home from London, and we ended up convincing him to join AVITAS. That was certainly a defining moment. Networks matter tremendously in this industry, and Adam’s relationships and global reach significantly expanded ours. In hindsight, that turned out to be absolutely brilliant.

Another major milestone came in 2003, when our parent company decided to focus elsewhere and told us they would keep the business but wouldn’t invest in its growth. We proposed something different — buying the company ourselves — and they were very supportive of that idea. We completed a management buyout, and they helped us through the process in very practical ways, even down to securing medical insurance for our staff. They were a fantastic parent throughout their ownership and remained clients afterward.

This was in the middle of the early-2000s downturn, executing a management buyout of an aviation consulting firm in the middle of the largest industry disruption we’d seen at that point. There was some nail-biting, but it ultimately proved very positive for us. Bankruptcies and industry disruption tend to create demand for consultants. Suddenly, people who never expected to think about aircraft were forced to. The work we did during the U.S. bankruptcies raised our profile and introduced us to a client base that is otherwise very difficult to reach, particularly investors in the bond market, who tend to be private and hard to identify. That period fundamentally elevated AVITAS’s standing in the industry.

Jetrader: Who were the people who have most shaped your time in the industry?
 

JV: Every ISTAT president during my time on the board — and since — has shaped me in some way. I’ve learned something from each of them. Early in my career, though, one manager at Douglas Aircraft Company really left a lasting impression. During an annual review, he said, “John, you’re not necessarily the creative type, but your big strength is synthesis.” I asked him what he meant, and he explained that while I might not create the whiz-bang gadget, I could see how different pieces fit together and how to combine other people’s work into something stronger. That comment has stayed with me my entire career.

Two strengths that have allowed me to have a long career without moving around much are that I genuinely like people, and I’m good at seeing how different things fit together. That applies directly to aircraft analysis — there are many aspects to it, and while I may not be the expert in every one, I can understand how they interact. It’s the same with our business. We have technical, consulting, IT and valuation groups, and seeing how all of that comes together to help clients has always been one of my core strengths. I’ve always been grateful to that manager for recognizing that early on.

There were many others along the way, especially during my time at the finance company. Doug Kaprielian was a fantastic manager who invested a lot of effort in developing me and shared a great deal of wisdom. Neil Whitehouse, who hired me into AVITAS, helped me develop my appraisal skills and understand what it means to be an independent appraiser, as opposed to viewing the market from inside a large organization. Adam Pilarski, Doug Kelly and my entire team at AVITAS — from top to bottom — have all shaped me. Everyone brings something valuable to the table.

My family has also played an enormous role. My wife and I met at Douglas, and she grew up in the industry. Her father worked at SAS in Stockholm, so she understood the demands, the travel and the pace of the business. That made a tremendous difference. This is an international industry, with late nights, urgent calls and last-minute travel, and having her support allowed me to do what the job required. That support has meant everything.

But ultimately, everyone who will be in the room when I accept this award has shaped me. That’s the strength of ISTAT. It’s a networking organization, built by the industry and for the industry, and this is very much a relationship business. People may change logos on their business cards, but not many leave the industry. We say they get kerosene in their blood. You might be partners on one deal and across the table from the same people on the next. ISTAT plays a huge role in making that ecosystem work.
 

Jetrader: AVITAS has overseen the valuation of thousands of aircraft over the years. How has the methodology behind aircraft valuation changed since the late 1990s, and what fundamentals have remained constant?
 

JV: A lot of the fundamentals behind how we approach valuation really haven’t changed. When I first started in the business, there was some publicly available transaction data. The U.S. Department of Transportation required airlines to report aircraft purchases and sales, so you could see deal activity — although you still had to interpret it carefully. One airline might include a spare engine, another wouldn’t. Some reported airframe and engines separately; others reported a single number. You had to analyze the data, but at least it was there.

That changed in the early 1990s. The reporting requirements were closed, briefly reopened and then closed again in 1994 after airlines successfully argued that making transaction data public put U.S. carriers at a competitive disadvantage, since airlines elsewhere in the world don’t disclose that information. The result is a much more opaque industry, where actual transaction data isn’t publicly available.

That opacity has only increased the value of relationships and networks. Being able to call the CEO of a leasing company and ask, “How did you do on this deal?” matters. That kind of market intelligence doesn’t live in a database — you get it through trust and long-standing relationships. That’s been one of the biggest changes over time.

Another major shift has been the maturation of the aircraft trading and finance industry itself. These are very large-dollar assets. Years ago, you might see small brokers handling one-off transactions — onesies and twosies. That rarely happens anymore. The industry now involves much larger pools of capital, and transactions are often done on a portfolio basis. That raises new challenges around how you dissect those deals and understand what they mean for individual aircraft values.

What hasn’t changed is the core methodology: analyzing the market, developing a Base Value and a Market Value, and applying that analysis to a specific serial number. The mechanics of valuation are largely the same. What has evolved significantly is how we manage, validate and interpret the inputs that go into that analysis.

Jetrader: You’ve worked through multiple industry cycles—booms, downturns and unprecedented disruptions. What have those cycles taught you about separating short-term volatility from long-term value?
 

JV: I’ll start with the negative, and then hopefully end with a little light. Every time the industry goes through a downturn, we tend to say, “This is unprecedented — we’ve never seen anything this bad.” The first time we experienced a year of negative traffic growth, there was real panic and a sense that the industry had fundamentally changed. It hadn’t. Traffic bounced back. Then the next downturn came, and it was worse. And then COVID hit. The magnitude of that downturn was far beyond anything we’d seen before. The word “unprecedented” gets diluted because it’s overused, but in that case, it was absolutely true.

Volatility is simply part of this industry, and understanding where you are in the cycle is critical. Managing that volatility is extremely difficult. It’s hard to imagine how a very small shop can keep up with everything that’s happening. We struggle at times ourselves, and we have a large, very strong team looking at everything from macroeconomic forces to highly technical, aircraft-specific issues. By definition, unpredictable events cannot be predicted, but what we can do is analyze the industry and make reasonable assessments about how it is likely to respond to unpredictable events. That’s where we focus our efforts.

The second part of the answer is that this industry is incredibly resilient, and I don’t see that changing. Fundamentally, people want to be together, and aviation makes that possible. Goods have to move, so air cargo remains essential. There will always be disruptions, and there will be periods when supply and demand are out of balance, but over time, the industry has consistently reverted to long-term trend lines. We’ve seen that again and again, and I don’t see much on the horizon that would change that.

We do have growing concerns around environmental issues in aviation, and those pressures will continue to build. Even if we’re in an ebb period right now — particularly in the U.S. — the longer-term trend toward greater sustainability isn’t going away. The industry will adapt, as it always has. There could be another unpredictable, paradigm-shifting event, whether it’s a breakthrough in aircraft efficiency, changes in energy sources or fuel technology. Fuel prices remain a major driver of volatility and value. Moving away from fossil fuels would be transformative, but it’s likely to take time.
 

Jetrader: What are the most common misconceptions people have about aircraft values and appraisals?
 

JV: One of the most common misconceptions is that if you hire two ISTAT-Certified Appraisers, they should arrive at the same number simply because they’re both certified. When that doesn’t happen, people assume something is wrong. In reality, that expectation misunderstands how this industry works.

At its core, aircraft valuation operates in an opaque market. Transaction information is proprietary and not publicly disclosed, so we’re not all working from the same dataset. Each Appraiser brings a different perspective, and disparities in value opinions generally come from three fundamental factors.

First is competence and experience. An Appraiser may be an absolute expert on one aircraft type and far less experienced on another. Some have decades of experience; others are earlier in their careers. The ISTAT Appraisers Program works hard to educate and bring new appraisers along, but certification doesn’t mean everyone has an identical depth of expertise.

I often use an analogy: You can hire an attorney in a local strip mall for $350 an hour, or you can pay $1,250 an hour for an attorney experienced in major mergers to help you merge two major aircraft leasing companies. Both are licensed to practice law, both passed the bar, but they’re not interchangeable. The same applies here.

Second, ethics can be a factor. It may be rare, but I’m not naïve enough to say it doesn’t happen. Ethical lapses can and do contribute to disparities in value opinions.

Third is access to market intelligence. Appraisers don’t all have the same visibility into transactions, and in a market where data isn’t public, that matters. Until transaction data becomes transparent — and if that ever happens — you’re always going to see differences.

Jetrader: What trends do you think will have the biggest impact on aircraft values over the next decade-plus?
 

JV: It’s hard to say, and that’s really the value of ISTAT conferences: We get together and talk through these questions. There are a lot of potential game-changers on the horizon, but it’s difficult to know which, if any, will truly move the needle. Unmanned aerial vehicles could eventually take over certain segments of the market. Will that happen? When? We don’t know. A breakthrough that allows long-range aircraft to be electrified sooner than expected would absolutely be a game-changer.

At the same time, this is a fairly mature industry. It’s becoming increasingly difficult to extract large, incremental gains from engineering alone. If someone figures out how to break through that ceiling, it could materially change aircraft values.

The industry does feel ripe for disruption, though. We’ve lived with a duopoly for a long time, and a new entrant could shake things up. Boom Supersonic has something very compelling — supersonic flight is always going to be exciting. Whether they succeed remains to be seen. JetZero is another fascinating company, with its blended-wing-body design. Watching how far those efforts go will be interesting. And of course, there’s always the question of whether a disruptor ultimately merges into Boeing or Airbus and we end up back in a duopoly.

They’re not the only ones, either. Hybrid technologies are emerging, likely starting in smaller aircraft and potentially scaling up over time. Airbus is talking seriously about hydrogen. True breakthrough technologies are getting harder to achieve, but that’s exactly what makes this period so fascinating to watch.
 

Jetrader: You’ve been deeply involved with ISTAT — as a Certified Appraiser, longtime board member, and past president. How has the organization evolved during your involvement?
 

JV: Size is one of the biggest changes. My first ISTAT meeting was in 1994, and there were just over 200 people. Even before that, meetings were closer to 150, and at the board level, we were already hearing complaints that ISTAT had gotten “too big.” We spent a lot of time in strategy sessions debating that issue and ultimately concluded that while we didn’t want to push growth for its own sake, we absolutely needed to be ready to accommodate it. That approach has proven to be the right one.

We started positioning the organization to handle the growth we believed was coming, and it did. Early on, we thought regionalizing events might help, with something in Asia, something in Europe and something in the U.S. The reality was that people wanted to go to everything. I certainly did.

The makeup of the membership has also changed significantly. Early on, many members came out of a smaller, single-aircraft trading environment. Today, large financial institutions make up a much bigger share of the membership. That changes the dynamic. I used to know 80% of the people in the room; now it’s probably closer to 20%. And I love that. I think it’s great.

ISTAT remains the primary way the industry comes together, and I hope that never changes. There’s also been meaningful progress in diversity — particularly gender diversity — which has been great to see.
 

Jetrader: The ISTAT Award recognizes individuals who have made lasting contributions to the commercial aviation industry. When you reflect on your career, what contributions are you most proud of?
 

JV: Some of the stated reasons, not my opinion, was in recognition of my long term on the board. Some people see that kind of continuity as a negative; others see it as a positive. For me, it was always about helping the organization maintain stability and perspective over time.

An award like this is never just about one individual. A very large part of it belongs to the company and the people around that individual, because they’re the ones who make it possible. I couldn’t have done any of this without the support of everyone at AVITAS.

At the end of the day, it’s been a labor of love. I have a deep affinity for ISTAT, and this award means a great deal to me. It was genuinely a shock to be considered at all, and to know that people think of me in this way is incredibly heartwarming.
 

Jetrader: What advice would you offer to someone early in their career who hopes to make a long-term impact on this industry?
 

JV: Know yourself and be comfortable with yourself. You'll find where your contribution can be made, and you'll just naturally gravitate toward it. I don't think a grand strategy by design is an effective way to go. I needed to give up on thinking I was going to revolutionize the world by creating some app that nobody else thought about.

Another piece of advice I would give is that relationships matter, and experience matters. You can YouTube how to repair your refrigerator, but it will be a frustrating experience, even with a YouTuber guiding you with video instructions. That first refrigerator repair is going to frustrate the hell out of you. But by the time you do it three times, it's easy. Experience matters, so don't be in a hurry. You’ve got to pay your dues.

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