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Who Pays for Aviation’s SAF Ambitions?

The aviation industry continues to pursue lower emissions, but speakers at ISTAT EMEA pointed to the cost, production capacity and policy support needed to expand sustainable aviation fuel. Airlines, fuel producers, lessors and financiers discussed how those challenges are shaping investment decisions and the path toward aviation’s long-term sustainability goals.

At ISTAT EMEA, held 13-15 September 2026 in Copenhagen, sustainability discussions repeatedly returned to a practical question of how the industry will build the production capacity needed to make sustainable aviation fuel available at scale.

During the Aviation Landscape Panel, speakers described an industry in which companies are investing in SAF and other emissions-reduction measures, but where production, cost and fragmented policies remain significant obstacles.

Building a Market for SAF

Jukka Siukosaari, senior vice president of public affairs and geopolitics at Neste Corporation, said during the Aviation Landscape Panel that Neste has already invested €10 billion in biofuels and is prepared to invest further.

“Neste has invested 10 billion Euros into biofuels,” Siukosaari said. “We are happy to continue that, but we need help. We are willing to invest more, but we need certainty to do that.”

Earlier in the panel, Siukosaari said governments are increasingly concerned about energy security and that sustainable fuels offer an opportunity in that area. He said Neste was relatively secure in its supply of raw materials when the war against Iran began because it was not dependent on a single route.

Siukosaari also discussed the limits of existing fuel pathways. He said waste-based renewable fuels cannot replace conventional fuel entirely but could account for as much as 35%. Neste is looking to expand its feedstock base beyond cooking oil and animal fat to include other residues from vegetable oil production.

“We need all the options though, and we need to make them commercially viable,” Siukosaari said.

Norwegian Air Shuttle CEO Geir Karlsen also emphasized the need for support beyond the airline industry. During the Aviation Landscape Panel, he said airlines, governments and passengers would all have a role in developing a market for lower-emission fuels.

“As long as people want to fly, we have to find a solution between the airlines, governments and passengers to fly more sustainably,” Karlsen said. “We have to find a way and all chip in and get a proper production going on biofuel and e-fuel. We need help for a few years to create the market and volumes. Without governments chipping in, it’ll be a challenge.”

Karlsen also pointed to the potential effect on passengers. He said feedstock prices are expected to rise, the e-SAF process takes three to four years, and airlines are concerned that ticket prices will increase.

A Global Industry With Fragmented SAF Policies

Jennifer Moulton, global head of sales at Dubai Aerospace Enterprise, identified policy fragmentation as another obstacle. During the Aviation Landscape Panel, Moulton said the challenge is not a lack of passenger demand but meeting that demand while replacing the global aircraft fleet and expanding sustainable fuel production.

“SAF cannot keep pace with that,” Moulton said. “Aviation is global, but SAF is not. It’s a fragmented part of the business. Different mandates around the world, different certification and incentives. Without the right incentives, we won’t have the production and distribution we need. A global framework for SAF is what we need.”

The discussion also addressed how different parts of the aviation finance sector are participating in the transition. Moulton said DAE does not invest directly in SAF research and development through its aircraft leasing business, instead focusing its own investment on next-generation aircraft. Bertrand Dehouck, global head of transportation capital markets at BNP Paribas, said the bank invested in a fund in late 2024 because it expects SAF to be an important part of aviation’s future.

Dehouck said the investment also gave the bank an opportunity to understand different SAF pathways and feedstocks, including the challenges projects face.

Airlines Put SAF Into Their Strategies

Airlines at ISTAT EMEA also described how sustainability is being incorporated into their longer-term plans.

During the Keynote Presentation, SAS Chief Financial Officer Jonathan Wallden identified sustainable aviation as one of the airline’s four strategic pillars. SAS’s approach includes fleet renewal and operational improvements, investment in SAF, partnerships and efforts to encourage sustainable travel. The airline also views newer aircraft as a way to reduce fuel consumption, noise and emissions.

Turkish Airlines is pursuing its own investments in SAF. During the Airline Fireside Chat, Okan Baş, deputy chair of Turkish Technology at Turkish Airlines, said fleet modernization and SAF usage are two of the airline’s five key pillars.

“We are investing in a SAF fund thanks to Airbus,” Baş said. “We are also making our own investment in Turkey. We are in the M&A process and will try to produce our own SAF in the upcoming years to prepare for the high volume. There is a huge supply chain problem on the SAF market right now.”

The Airline Panel provided another example of sustainability being incorporated into financing. Patrick Halluin, vice president of fleet transactions at Air France, said the airline has tried to integrate ESG KPIs into some sale-and-leaseback transactions in exchange for rental reductions.

How Confident Is the Industry About 2050?

Despite those investments, an audience poll during the OEM Panel showed considerable skepticism about whether aviation will reach its long-term target.

Asked whether the industry would achieve net zero by 2050, including through the use of SAF, 63% of respondents said it was unlikely.

The OEM Panel also highlighted other technologies under development. Jean-Charles Burguiere, head of leasing markets and asset management at ATR, said the manufacturer is participating in the Clean Aviation project and is targeting a hybrid-electric propulsion demonstrator flight by the end of 2029.

Speakers on the Aviation Landscape Panel did not suggest that a single technology or participant would resolve aviation’s sustainability challenges. Their comments instead focused on the conditions they said would be needed to expand sustainable fuel production: investment, policy certainty, government participation and greater coordination across markets.

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